Original source: http://tgftp.nws.noaa.gov/data/raw/wt/wtpq30.rjtd..txt, recovered at: 2018-08-15 2045Z
WTPQ30 RJTD 151800 RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO. 2 FOR TD LOCATED AT 14.0N 143.7E 1.GENERAL COMMENTS A TD IS LOCATED AT 14.0N, 143.7E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS POOR BECAUSE THE CSC IS OBSCURE. THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND WEAK VWS. INFORMATION ON CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWARD DUE TO WEAK STEERING FLOW. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB CLUSTERS ARE SCATTERED AROUND THE CSC. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM. 3.TRACK FORECAST THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE JMA TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS. JMA TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND WEAK VWS. THE SYSTEM WILL BE UPGRADED TO TS INTENSITY BY FT24. THE JMA INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON GUIDANCE DATA. =